John Legere is telling falsehoods about the T-Mobile-Sprint merger. The New York Times may have killed the merger with “The Implausible Promises of a T-Mobile-Sprint Merger.” http://bit.ly/2Fz7geZ The Times makes some of the same points as my article. http://bit.ly/TmoSData It'a loaded with confirming data.
If D.C. believes the Times that the main claims of the partners are not supportable, the merger will have less than a 10% chance of surviving. The Times has it right, which may not be enough to overcome some officials’ confirmation bias. The psychologists have proven that most of us are unwilling to credit anything that contradicts what we believe. (I have a pro-consumer bias. I do my best to overcome it and report close to the truth.)
The heart of the justification is that with the merger, we would have much better 5G, sooner, and that it would produce $billions in social gains. But Legere and his CTO have already promised 30 cities with 5G in 2018 and the entire country by 2020. The only way the new T-Mobile could bring 5G faster is to build it in 2017. That would be difficult at this point. In addition, their "5G" is mostly 600 MHz, not millimeter wave, with a speed only slightly faster than LTE in 2018. Since it won't deliver much more to the consumer and won't come sooner, the claimed social benefits disappear.
About the only legitimate way to justify the deal is by proving Sprint is inevitably a failing company. That's hard to credit, given a $36B market cap. The Sprint CEO and CFO have been emphatically denying that possibility to Wall Street. IANAL but felony fraud charges and jail time might be the result.
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