Steve Mollenkopf Angela Merkel 230Steve Mollenkopf's creative engineers produce many of the world's best chips. It's time for him to stop promoting a bogus claim "5G Expected to Create 22 Million Jobs, Produce Up to $12.3 Trillion of Goods and Services by 2035." They offer no evidence or logic that leads to that conclusion. They hired IHS Markit to do a "study" and Berkeley Professor David Teece to sign off on it. The substance of the study is a laundry list of future services, from drones to telemedicine to IoT to VR to Smart Grid. (They provide no source for their estimates of the values of each, but added together they do come to enormous figures.)

Problem: Nearly none of this requires 5G and the report gives no reason to believe their value-add should be attributed to 5G. Nearly all of them work just fine on LTE or Wi-Fi and do not require 5G. Nowhere in the report do they provide a breakdown of how much of the total value of the drones, remote medical consults, or meter reading need 5G. Without that, the conclusions are hogwash. In addition, anyone who has worked with economic forecasts knows how hard it is to look five years ahead, let alone 20.

I've researched the requirements of AR, VR, telemedicine, and IoT. Experts in each field tell me 5G isn't needed for what they are doing. Even most of the connected car stuff doesn't need lower latency than LTE can deliver.  Thousands of Qualcomm engineers every day tell customers, accurately, that Qualcomm products today meet these needs and will be even better in the future. 

Qualcomm has the world's first chip for Gig LTE and some of the world's best Wi-Fi chips; Mollenkopf would see instantly the report was bogus if he actually read it. 

The cost per bit of 5G Massive MIMO and probably 5G mmWave will be attractive, so I'm confident we'll be seeing it. 5G should pay for itself by lowering the cost of building networks. (Soon on Massive MIMO, probably later on mmWave. We'll know more when we get data from the field.) 

Lazy reporters who haven't read the report have already picked up the headline figures and I just saw several references.

 

 

Landmark Study on Impact of 5G Mobile Technology Released

5G Expected to Create 22 Million Jobs, Produce Up to $12.3 Trillion of Goods and Services by 2035

Qualcomm Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM) today announced that its subsidiary, Qualcomm Technologies, Inc. commissioned and released a landmark study, The 5G Economy, examining the potential economic and social impact of 5G around the world. The study was conducted jointly by research firms IHS Markit, PSB and leading economist Professor Dr. David Teece, director of the Tusher Center at the Haas School of Business, U.C. California, and principal executive officer of the Berkeley Research Group (BRG).

The 5G Economy includes an economic impact study conducted by IHS Markit and validated by Dr. David Teece, as well as opinion research about the expectations for 5G among business and technology leaders carried out by PSB. The combined findings of the study show how 5G will profoundly affect the global economy and that business decision makers in technology and other industries overwhelmingly believe in the transformational nature of 5G. 

“These respected researchers confirmed our strong belief that 5G will be a fundamental game changer,” said Qualcomm CEO Steve Mollenkopf.  “We have been hard at work helping create some of the key technologies and applications that will make 5G a reality, pushing the boundaries of LTE, collaborating with industry leaders, and spearheading the critical research behind the next-generation global wireless standard.”

Notably, the study indicates that 5G will catapult mobile into the exclusive realm of General Purpose Technologies, like electricity and the automobile, that provide the foundation for massive innovation, give rise to new industries and benefit entire economies. This will happen as 5G advances mobile from a set of technologies connecting people to people and information to a unified fabric connecting people to everything.

“I’ve spent many years studying the impact of general purposes technologies, and it’s clear that 5G will propel mobile into that category, assuring the technology’s long-term impact on society and continued growth for decades.” said Dr. David Teece.

Economic Growth Foreseen

According to the study, in 2035, when 5G’s full economic benefit should be realized across the globe, a broad range of industries – from retail to education, transportation to entertainment, and everything in between – could produce up to $12.3 trillion worth of goods and services enabled by 5G.

The 5G value chain itself is seen as generating up to $3.5 trillion in revenue in 2035, supporting as many as 22 million jobs. Over time, 5G will boost real global GDP growth by $3 trillion dollars cumulatively from 2020 to 2035, roughly the equivalent of adding an economy the size of India to the world in today’s dollars.

Complementing the economic study, polling research done by PSB confirms that business decision makers and opinion leaders around the globe expect 5G to bring widespread benefits for society and the economy overall, enabling new products and services, increasing productivity and allowing for new industries to emerge. Over 90 percent of the more than 3,500 respondents agreed that 5G will enable new products, services and use cases that have not been invented yet.

For an in-depth look at the study, please visit: https://www.qualcomm.com/invention/5g/economy.

About Berkeley Research Group

Berkeley Research Group is a leading global strategic advisory and expert consulting firm that provides independent advice, data analytics, authoritative studies, expert testimony, investigations, and regulatory and dispute consulting to Fortune 500 corporations, financial institutions, government agencies, major law firms, and regulatory bodies around the world. It is led by its chairman and founder, David Teece, Tusher Professor of Global Business at the Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley.

About IHS Markit

IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO) is a world leader in critical information, analytics and solutions for the major industries and markets that drive economies worldwide. The company delivers next-generation information, analytics and solutions to customers in business, finance and government, improving their operational efficiency and providing deep insights that lead to well-informed, confident decisions. IHS Markit has more than 50,000 key business and government customers, including 85 percent of the Fortune Global 500 and the world’s leading financial institutions. Headquartered in London, IHS Markit is committed to sustainable, profitable growth.

About PSB

PSB, a member of the WPP Group, is a global research-based consultancy specializing in messaging and communications strategy for blue-chip corporate, political and entertainment clients. PSB’s operations include over 200 consultants and a sophisticated in-house market research infrastructure with the capability to conduct work in more than 90 countries. For more information, please visit www.psbresearch.com.

About Qualcomm

They make great chips and non-great public statements. Dave 

Tikona gets $171 million from US govt agency

The funding, which is a commercial loan, puts to rest talks of acquisition of the company and provides it the liquidity necessary for revival. Prakash Bajpai, founder of Tikona, confirmed the funding.
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MUMBAI: Tikona Digital, owned by a clutch of investors including Goldman SachsOak InvestmentIFC and Everstone Capital, has recently tied up funding of $171 million (Rs 1,150 crore) from Overseas Private Investment Corporation, a US government development finance agency.

The funding, which is a commercial loan, puts to rest talks of acquisition of the company and provides it the liquidity necessary for revival. Prakash Bajpai, founder of Tikona, confirmed the funding.

“This could be the company’s second coming with renewed interest in the telecom sector and its ancillaries,” said a senior investment banker, requesting anonymity.

Tikona gets $171 million from US govt agencyTikona gets $171 million from US govt agency - Image

In recent times, there has been talk of Tikona’s merger with Norway’s Telenor and telecom bellwether Airtel because of its 4G airwaves that it had bought in 2010. However, valuations have been unflattering, the investment banker.

Tikona has run a pilot project in Varanasi to wire the city with 4G technology for home broadband.

More than six years ago, the company had spent Rs 1,058 crore to buy airwaves in five service areas. However, quite like Reliance Jio, it found the 4G technology standards still evolving and the device eco-system was weak.

Bajpai, a technocrat, started Tikona’s home WiFi service on free airwaves, but business didn’t shape up as earlier forecast. In 2012, Tikona consolidated resources shutting service in 12 out of the 38 cities and has now developed technology to provide broadband with 4G technology.

After its latest technology investments, the company can produce 1GB of data for a mere Rs 5, said Bajpai. It is looking to replicate its rollout in Varanasi in at least 60 more cities within the next 18 months, he said.

“Mobile telecom operators produce a GB of data at about Rs 60-70,” said a senior telecom analyst. However, the cost structure for mobile operators and home broadband operators will always be disparate because maintaining mobile continuity is costly.

The one thing that has remained constant for Tikona is its focus on the home broadband market.

The company isn’t trying to compete with wireless operators, but challenges only BSNL, Tata Teleservices, and other local broadband operators such as Hathway.

In Varanasi, Bajpai said the company has been able to take on competition and garnered around half the market. It isn’t offering low-end solutions, and instead wants to corner the multi-device, heavy users who consume tens of GB data. Bajpai said the move has resulted in a seven-month break even for Varanasi.

Bajpai founded Tikona after a long stint with Reliance Communications, running enterprise solutions before the Reliance group was split between the two Ambani brothers in 2006.

The world needs a good news source on Internet and telecom policy. I hope to create one. Catch a mistake? Email me please.  Dave Burstein

Latest

Professor Noam's "Many Internets" http://bit.ly/ManyNets

Until about 2010, everyone agreed the Net was a "network of networks," not a monolithic entity. There was a central authority, ICANN, keeping track of domain names, but that was a minor administrative function.
Columbia Professor Noam suggests we might be better off accepting that some nations or groups might want to organize their networks differently. It's easy to see demand for an Internet with much more effective filters against material some think harmful to children. (Any 10 year old can easily find porn today. Many do.)
Internet translation is getting better very quickly. You might want an "Internet" that translates everything into your language. Google Chrome translation isn't perfect but I was able to research most of this story on Russian language sites. With a few more years progress, I might welcome an alternate that brings me everything in English, including caching for better performance.
De facto, Internet news is already split, as hundreds of millions only get their news from Facebook. Google AMP pages, including for news, also favor selected parts of the net
Centralizing the DNS doesn't prevent censorship, as the Chinese have demonstrated. There are many Jewish and Muslim fundamentalists who want to block what they consider blasphemy and limit free speech. See http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/21/nyregion/ultra-orthodox-jews-hold-rally-on-internet-at-citi-field.html . More from Noam http://bit.ly/ManyNets

Russia Orders Alternate Root Internet System http://bit.ly/RussiaDNS
It's actually practical and not necessarily a problem.The Security Council of the Russian Federation, headed by Vladimir Putin, has ordered the "government to develop an independent internet infrastructure for BRICS nations, which would continue to work in the event of global internet malfunctions ... This system would be used by countries of the BRICS bloc – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa." RT
Columbia University Professor Eli Noam and then ICANN CEO Fadi Chehadé have both said such a system is perfectly practical as long as there is robust interconnection.
Actually, the battle over ICANN and domain names is essentially symbolic. Managing the DNS is a relatively insignificant task, more clerical than governing. ICANN Chair Steve Crocker pointed out they had very little to do with policy.
Some will claim this is about blocking free speech but that's rhetoric. Russia doesn't need to fiddle with the DNS for censorship, as the Chinese have demonstrated. The wonders of the Internet will continue so long as the resulting nets" are robustly connected. The ICANN and U.S. policy goal should be to help create that system for interconnection.
I expect contentions that “The Russians are taking over our Internet” and “They are splitting the Internet.” The Internet is a “Network of Networks.” It is not a monolith so what would “splitting” it mean or do?
After the WCIT, China realized that ICANN and the DNS are side issues not worth bothering about. They have been building alternate institutions including the World Internet Summit in Wuzhan and the BRICs conferences.  The Chinese have put their main work where decisions that matter are made. Wireless standards are set by 3GPP, where nothing can be approved without China's consent.
The American battle at ITU is proving to be a historic mistake.
Why does Russia want an independent Internet?
They fear that Western sanctions on Russia could cripple the Russian Net. Communications minister, Nikolay Nikiforov, worries about, "a scenario where our esteemed partners would suddenly decide to disconnect us from the internet." I think that's highly unlikely but Nikiforov points out, “Recently, Russia is being addressed in a language of unilateral sanctions: first, our credit cards are being cut off; then the European Parliament says that they’ll disconnect us from SWIFT."
It makes sense for the Russians to be prepared for such a contingency as the Cold War has been warming up on both sides. "Britain's top military chief Air Chief Marshal Sir Stuart Peach just made headlines warning Russian subs "could CRIPPLE Britain by cutting undefended undersea internet cables." Much more http://bit.ly/RussiaDNS

ICANN Continues Excluding Russia & China From the Board http://bit.ly/CEOPromises
No wonder Russia wants an alternate root. Three years ago, ICANN CEO Fadi Chehadé promised "a seat at the table" to Chinese Premier Li. ICANN welched and this year added two more Americans.
Almost all the ICANN board is from the U.S. and close allies; only about 4 of the 18 board members are from countries on the other side of the North/South divide in Internet policy.  Claiming ICANN represents the Global Internet is inappropriate. China is 1/3rd of the Internet but has no representation on the board.
I know many of the board members. They are all basically honorable but generally share a strong opinion on North-South issues.
Larry Strickling of the U.S. government knew just what he was doing with the IANA transition. He handed over to a board with similar positions as the U.S. government.
"The system is unsustainable while it excludes half the world," I have been saying since 2012. More, including the transcript of Fadi's statements,http://bit.ly/CEOPromises

Sorry, Ajit Pai: Smaller Telcos Did Not Reduce Investment After NN Ruling http://bit.ly/SorryPai
Pai justifies his NN choice with the claim, "The impact has been particularly serious for smaller Internet service providers." #wrong (Actually, NN has minimal effects on investment, up or down, I’m convinced. Competition, new technology, customer demand and similar are far more important.)
The two largest suppliers to “smaller ISPs” saw sales go up. Adtran's sales the most recent nine months were $540M, up from $473M the year before. 2016 was $636M, 2015 $600M. Calix the last nine months sold $372M, up from $327M. The full year 2016 was $459M, up from $407M in 2015. Clearfield, a supplier of fiber optic gear, was up 8% in sales in the smaller ISPs.
There is nothing in the data from others that suggests an alternate trend. Anyone could have found this data in a few minutes from the company quarterly reports.
The results in larger companies are ambiguous. I can "prove" capex went up or went down by selecting the right data. The four largest companies' capex - two/thirds of the total - went up from $52.7B in 2015 to $55.7B in 2016. The result remains positive after making sensible adjustments for mergers and acquisitions. That's as close to "proving" that NN led to increased spending as the facts chosen to prove the opposite.
Actually, whether capex went up or down in 2016 tells us almost nothing about the choice on neutrality. Everyone knows a single datapoint could be random or due to other causes. Much more, including the source of the errors http://bit.ly/SorryPai

Elders Bearing Witness: Vint, Timbl, & Many More http://bit.ly/VintTim
Vint Cerf, Tim Berners-Lee, Steve Wozniak and more than a dozen true Internet pioneers wrote Congress to protect Neutrality. The best Congress money can buy didn't listen but I wanted to reproduce their letter.
I hope they are wrong believing "is an imminent threat to the Internet we worked so hard to create." My take is the impact will be moderate in the short run.
From the letter:
We are the pioneers and technologists who created and now operate the Internet, and some of the innovators and business people who, like many others, depend on it for our livelihood. ... The FCC’s proposed Order is based on a flawed and factually inaccurate understanding of Internet technology. These flaws and inaccuracies were documented in detail in a 43-page-long joint comment signed by over 200 of the most prominent Internet pioneers and engineers and submitted to the FCC on July 17, 2017.
Despite this comment, the FCC did not correct its misunderstandings, but instead premised the proposed Order on the very technical flaws the comment explained. The technically-incorrect proposed Order ... More, including the full list, http://bit.ly/VintTim